Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians shut out the Boston Red Sox 1-0 at Fenway Park on September 24, 2026, holding a lineup that entered with a 55 percent home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model to just two hits over nine innings. Cleveland scored its only run in the second inning and never needed another, as the pitching staff protected that slim lead from the third inning through the final out. The Guardians finished with four hits and committed one error, while Boston managed two hits and also erred once, leaving the Red Sox unable to generate any sustained threat against a Cleveland bullpen that proved stifling throughout.

The decisive sequence of the game came in the late innings, where win-probability swings told the story of Boston's mounting and ultimately failed attempts to extend the contest. In the seventh, Ceddanne Rafaela grounded into a double play off Hunter Gaddis that cost the Red Sox 14.3 percentage points of win probability, erasing a scoring opportunity that had opened slightly when Caleb Durbin drew a walk worth 6.7 points. The eighth inning brought another painful moment, as Adley Rutschman struck out against Erik Sabrowski, a swing of negative 16.5 percentage points that further extinguished Boston's hopes. The game ended in the ninth with Cade Smith striking out Rafaela for the final out, a result that added 31.6 percentage points to Cleveland's side and confirmed what the DiamondIQ model's estimate showed as a complete probability reversal from pregame to final out.

On the mound, Joey Cantillo led all players with a WPA of plus-34.2 percent, anchoring the effort with what the numbers identify as the most impactful individual contribution of the night. Sabrowski added plus-23.3 percent in win probability, and Raymond Burgos contributed plus-11.0, forming a cohesive chain of Cleveland arms that Boston could not solve. At the plate, Rafaela finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-23.3 percent, a figure driven largely by the strikeout he absorbed in the ninth, which paradoxically registered as a win for Cleveland's ledger given the game-ending context. José Ramírez and Andruw Monasterio each added plus-3.7 percent, while the Red Sox could point to no individual offensive performance that moved the needle in their favor.