DiamondIQ · Newsletter
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A 2-minute read. Model performance reported straight — a bad day says so — plus the day's slate with model leans, our WAR/BatIQ/PitchIQ, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
DiamondIQ · Newsletter
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A 2-minute read: yesterday's biggest swings, our model's record reported straight (a bad day says so), today's slate with model leans, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
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Model — day by day
Aggregate calibration on /model →The model's daily record on close-line leans, straight from the same graded predictions that power /model. Record is picks vs. actual outcomes; Brier is the day's mean (lower is better). Cumulative: 644-454 over 1098 graded games.
| Date | Games | Record | Brier | Notable | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.1837 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 17 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.2344 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 15 | 2 | 0-2 | 0.2679 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 14 | 1 | 0-1 | 0.2784 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 13 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.1956 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 12 | 2 | 1-1 | 0.2755 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 11 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.2123 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 10 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.2135 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 8 | 1 | 0-1 | 0.2728 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 7 | 4 | 2-2 | 0.2529 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 6 | 2 | 0-2 | 0.2590 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0.2648 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0.2446 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 3 | 4 | 3-1 | 0.2138 | — | issueslate |
| Oct 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.2072 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 30 | 4 | 2-2 | 0.2417 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 29 | 4 | 3-1 | 0.2210 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 27 | 14 | 11-3 | 0.2200 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 26 | 13 | 9-4 | 0.2406 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 25 | 17 | 11-6 | 0.2341 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 24 | 12 | 8-4 | 0.2512 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 23 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2505 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 22 | 14 | 6-8 | 0.2598 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 21 | 3 | 2-1 | 0.2389 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 20 | 15 | 13-2 | 0.2091 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 19 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2252 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 18 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2308 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 17 | 9 | 7-2 | 0.2178 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 16 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2485 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 15 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2505 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 14 | 10 | 6-4 | 0.2330 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 13 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2412 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 12 | 15 | 11-4 | 0.2303 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 11 | 15 | 11-4 | 0.2220 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 10 | 5 | 3-2 | 0.2431 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 9 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2401 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 8 | 15 | 6-9 | 0.2473 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 7 | 11 | 8-3 | 0.2308 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 6 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2308 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 5 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2711 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 4 | 15 | 11-4 | 0.2250 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 3 | 9 | 4-5 | 0.2478 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 2 | 15 | 6-9 | 0.2751 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 1 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2375 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 31 | 11 | 7-4 | 0.2474 | — | issueslate |
Notable calls & misses
The model backed the market's underdog — it favored the opposite side from the market's closing line by at least 8 percentage points on win probability. A "call" is one of those games the model's side won; a "miss" is one it lost. Same bar both ways. No hand-picking — the bar is defined in code and applied both ways. Record on these divergent games: 2 calls · 3 misses.
Notable calls
- SEA @ MIA — model leaned MIA (mkt underdog), wonJul 9 · model 53% home vs mkt 43% · Δ 10%
- HOU @ TEX — model leaned TEX (mkt underdog), wonJul 10 · model 53% home vs mkt 45% · Δ 8%
Notable misses
- DET @ ATH — model leaned ATH (mkt underdog), DET wonAug 1 · model 50% home vs mkt 38% · Δ 13%
- ATL @ PIT — model leaned ATL (mkt underdog), PIT wonJul 7 · model 50% home vs mkt 62% · Δ 12%
- BOS @ CWS — model leaned CWS (mkt underdog), BOS wonJul 7 · model 55% home vs mkt 47% · Δ 8%
Archive
RSSOctober 2026
- dailyJake Bauers Spikes Attention Heading Into the PostseasonOct 22
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 21
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 20
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 19
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyOct 19
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 18
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 17
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 16
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 15
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 14
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 13
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyOct 12
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyOct 12
- dailyMIL hosts LAD in a slim leanOct 11
- dailyOne Game Saturday: CLE Hosts CWSOct 10
- dailyRamírez Swings, Model Misses — Oct 9Oct 9
- dailyOctober 8: One game, one edge to watchOct 8
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Oct 7 — Model Looks to ReboundOct 7
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Oct 6 Playoff EditionOct 6
- dailyDe Paula's pop out flips the NLCSOct 5
- weeklyRays, Braves lock in; model goes 10-5Oct 5
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Oct 4 Playoff RoundupOct 4
- dailySaturday slate opens with four lean-worthy gamesOct 3
- dailyATL holds; De Paula and Misiorowski in focusOct 2
- dailyATL looks for revenge in a one-game slateOct 1
September 2026
- dailyRiley lifts ATL; model goes 3-1 on TuesdaySep 30
- dailySept 29: NYY, SD lead a light 4-game slateSep 29
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sep 28, 2026Sep 28
- weeklyRays, Braves punch tickets as week endsSep 28
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sep 27, 2026Sep 27
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sept 26, 13 Games on TapSep 26
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: September 25, 2026Sep 25
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sept 24 twelve-game slateSep 24
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sept 23 recap and today's slateSep 23
- dailyAlonso walks off Baltimore; 16 games TuesdaySep 22
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sept 21, 2026Sep 21
- weeklyRays and Braves lock up October berthsSep 21
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sep 20, 2026Sep 20
- dailyCES delivered; model eyes CLE on SaturdaySep 19
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: Sep 18 — Model Rebounds 7-2Sep 18
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 17
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 16
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 15
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 14
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 13
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 12
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 11
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 10
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 9
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 8
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 7
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklySep 7
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 6
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 5
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 4
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 3
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 2
- dailyDiamondIQ DailySep 1
August 2026
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 31
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 31
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 30
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 29
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 28
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 27
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 26
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 25
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 24
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 24
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 23
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 22
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 21
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 20
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 19
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 18
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 17
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 17
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 16
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 15
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 14
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 13
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 12
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 11
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 10
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 10
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 9
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 8
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 7
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 6
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 5, 2026Aug 5
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 4, 2026Aug 4
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 3, 2026Aug 3
- weeklyRays and Brewers lock up October berthsAug 3
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 2, 2026Aug 2
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 1, 2026Aug 11 miss
July 2026
- dailyJuly 31: Model goes 7-3, Clemens steals the nightJul 31
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 30, 2026Jul 30
- dailyLewis lifts Minnesota; model goes 9-5Jul 29
- dailyRafaela lifts Boston; model goes 5-6Jul 28
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 27, 2026Jul 27
- weeklyRays, Brewers locked in; Crow-Armstrong leads WARJul 27
- dailySunday slate: model breaks even at 8-7Jul 26
- dailyJuly 25: Model went 7-8 FridayJul 25
- dailyFriday slate: 15 games, model at 2-2Jul 24
- dailyStewart's HR swings CIN; 9-6 ThursdayJul 23
- dailyJuly 22: model goes 7-6, Kepler steals the nightJul 22
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 21, 2026Jul 21
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 20, 2026Jul 20
- weeklyRays and Brewers locked in; model takes a step backJul 20
- dailyJuly 19: Model breaks even on a wild SaturdayJul 19
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyJul 18
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 17, 2026Jul 17
- dailyThursday: One Game, PHI LeansJul 16
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 15, 2026Jul 15
- dailyAll-Star Eve: One Game, One LeanJul 14
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 13, 2026Jul 13
- weeklyRays and Dodgers locked in; model goes 57-38Jul 13
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 12, 2026Jul 12
- dailyModel stumbles; Chisholm lifts YankeesJul 11
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 10, 2026Jul 101 call
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 9, 2026Jul 91 call