DiamondIQ · Newsletter
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A 2-minute read. Model performance reported straight — a bad day says so — plus the day's slate with model leans, our WAR/BatIQ/PitchIQ, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
DiamondIQ · Newsletter
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A 2-minute read: yesterday's biggest swings, our model's record reported straight (a bad day says so), today's slate with model leans, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
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Model — day by day
Aggregate calibration on /model →The model's daily record on close-line leans, straight from the same graded predictions that power /model. Record is picks vs. actual outcomes; Brier is the day's mean (lower is better). Cumulative: 444-332 over 776 graded games.
| Date | Games | Record | Brier | Notable | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2711 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 4 | 15 | 11-4 | 0.2250 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 3 | 9 | 4-5 | 0.2478 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 2 | 15 | 6-9 | 0.2751 | — | issueslate |
| Sep 1 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2375 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 31 | 11 | 7-4 | 0.2474 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 30 | 14 | 8-6 | 0.2342 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 29 | 16 | 12-4 | 0.2268 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 28 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2271 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 27 | 7 | 4-3 | 0.2479 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 26 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2357 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 25 | 15 | 3-12 | 0.2776 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 24 | 10 | 5-5 | 0.2437 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 23 | 15 | 13-2 | 0.2170 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 22 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2546 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 21 | 15 | 12-3 | 0.2077 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 20 | 8 | 5-3 | 0.2453 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 19 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2453 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 18 | 15 | 12-3 | 0.2289 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 17 | 10 | 7-3 | 0.2230 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 16 | 15 | 5-10 | 0.2663 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 15 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2670 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 14 | 14 | 4-10 | 0.2653 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 13 | 9 | 2-7 | 0.2762 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 12 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2297 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 11 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2448 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 10 | 10 | 6-4 | 0.2313 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 9 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2334 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 8 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2524 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 7 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2563 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 6 | 10 | 6-4 | 0.2412 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 5 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2352 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 4 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2244 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 3 | 8 | 3-5 | 0.2715 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 2 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2517 | — | issueslate |
| Aug 1 | 15 | 12-3 | 0.2322 | 1✗ | issueslate |
| Jul 31 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2466 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 30 | 10 | 7-3 | 0.2288 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 29 | 15 | 5-10 | 0.2597 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 28 | 14 | 9-5 | 0.2448 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 27 | 11 | 5-6 | 0.2652 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 26 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2449 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 25 | 15 | 8-7 | 0.2406 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 24 | 15 | 7-8 | 0.2596 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 23 | 4 | 2-2 | 0.2385 | — | issueslate |
Notable calls & misses
The model backed the market's underdog — it favored the opposite side from the market's closing line by at least 8 percentage points on win probability. A "call" is one of those games the model's side won; a "miss" is one it lost. Same bar both ways. No hand-picking — the bar is defined in code and applied both ways. Record on these divergent games: 2 calls · 3 misses.
Notable calls
- SEA @ MIA — model leaned MIA (mkt underdog), wonJul 9 · model 53% home vs mkt 43% · Δ 10%
- HOU @ TEX — model leaned TEX (mkt underdog), wonJul 10 · model 53% home vs mkt 45% · Δ 8%
Notable misses
- DET @ ATH — model leaned ATH (mkt underdog), DET wonAug 1 · model 50% home vs mkt 38% · Δ 13%
- ATL @ PIT — model leaned ATL (mkt underdog), PIT wonJul 7 · model 50% home vs mkt 62% · Δ 12%
- BOS @ CWS — model leaned CWS (mkt underdog), BOS wonJul 7 · model 55% home vs mkt 47% · Δ 8%
Archive
RSSSeptember 2026
August 2026
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 31
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 31
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 30
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 29
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- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 27
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 26
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 25
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 24
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 24
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 23
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- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 17
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- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 11
- weeklyDiamondIQ WeeklyAug 10
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 10
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 9
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 8
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 7
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyAug 6
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 5, 2026Aug 5
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 4, 2026Aug 4
- weeklyRays and Brewers lock up October berthsAug 3
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 3, 2026Aug 3
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 2, 2026Aug 2
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: August 1, 2026Aug 11 miss
July 2026
- dailyJuly 31: Model goes 7-3, Clemens steals the nightJul 31
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 30, 2026Jul 30
- dailyLewis lifts Minnesota; model goes 9-5Jul 29
- dailyRafaela lifts Boston; model goes 5-6Jul 28
- weeklyRays, Brewers locked in; Crow-Armstrong leads WARJul 27
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 27, 2026Jul 27
- dailySunday slate: model breaks even at 8-7Jul 26
- dailyJuly 25: Model went 7-8 FridayJul 25
- dailyFriday slate: 15 games, model at 2-2Jul 24
- dailyStewart's HR swings CIN; 9-6 ThursdayJul 23
- dailyJuly 22: model goes 7-6, Kepler steals the nightJul 22
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 21, 2026Jul 21
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 20, 2026Jul 20
- weeklyRays and Brewers locked in; model takes a step backJul 20
- dailyJuly 19: Model breaks even on a wild SaturdayJul 19
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyJul 18
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 17, 2026Jul 17
- dailyThursday: One Game, PHI LeansJul 16
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 15, 2026Jul 15
- dailyAll-Star Eve: One Game, One LeanJul 14
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 13, 2026Jul 13
- weeklyRays and Dodgers locked in; model goes 57-38Jul 13
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 12, 2026Jul 12
- dailyModel stumbles; Chisholm lifts YankeesJul 11
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 10, 2026Jul 101 call
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 9, 2026Jul 91 call
- dailyChurch's groundout swung Milwaukee's dayJul 8
- weeklyRays and Dodgers lock up October; model stumblesJul 72 misses
- dailySoto walks off Atlanta, model stumblesJul 72 misses
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 6 SlateReconstructedJul 6