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A 2-minute read. Model performance reported straight — a bad day says so — plus the day's slate with model leans, our WAR/BatIQ/PitchIQ, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
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A 2-minute read: yesterday's biggest swings, our model's record reported straight (a bad day says so), today's slate with model leans, and one attention mover. No betting advice.
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Model — day by day
Aggregate calibration on /model →The model's daily record on close-line leans, straight from the same graded predictions that power /model. Record is picks vs. actual outcomes; Brier is the day's mean (lower is better). Cumulative: 94-73 over 167 graded games.
| Date | Games | Record | Brier | Notable | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21 | 13 | 7-6 | 0.2586 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 20 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2388 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 19 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2436 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 18 | 14 | 7-7 | 0.2393 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 17 | 13 | 5-8 | 0.2556 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 16 | 1 | 0-1 | 0.3545 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 14 | 1 | 0-1 | 0.2739 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 12 | 15 | 9-6 | 0.2430 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 11 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2431 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 10 | 14 | 5-9 | 0.2638 | 1✓ | issueslate |
| Jul 9 | 13 | 9-4 | 0.2436 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 8 | 15 | 11-4 | 0.2394 | — | issueslate |
| Jul 7 | 15 | 10-5 | 0.2496 | 1✗ | issueslate |
| Jul 6 | 8 | 3-5 | 0.2869 | 1✓ 1✗ | issueslate |
Notable calls & misses
The model backed the market's underdog — it favored the opposite side from the market's closing line by at least 8 percentage points on win probability. A "call" is one of those games the model's side won; a "miss" is one it lost. Same bar both ways. No hand-picking — the bar is defined in code and applied both ways. Record on these divergent games: 2 calls · 2 misses.
- MIL @ STL — model leaned MIL (mkt underdog), wonJul 6 · model 45% home vs mkt 76% · Δ 31%
- HOU @ TEX — model leaned TEX (mkt underdog), wonJul 10 · model 53% home vs mkt 44% · Δ 9%
- NYY @ TB — model leaned TB (mkt underdog), NYY wonJul 6 · model 59% home vs mkt 3% · Δ 56%
- BOS @ CWS — model leaned CWS (mkt underdog), BOS wonJul 7 · model 55% home vs mkt 47% · Δ 8%
- dailyJuly 22: model goes 7-6, Kepler steals the nightJul 22
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 21, 2026Jul 21
- weeklyRays and Brewers locked in; model takes a step backJul 20
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 20, 2026Jul 20
- dailyJuly 19: Model breaks even on a wild SaturdayJul 19
- dailyDiamondIQ DailyJul 18
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 17, 2026Jul 17
- dailyThursday: One Game, PHI LeansJul 16
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 15, 2026Jul 15
- dailyAll-Star Eve: One Game, One LeanJul 14
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 13, 2026Jul 13
- weeklyRays and Dodgers locked in; model goes 57-38Jul 13
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 12, 2026Jul 12
- dailyModel stumbles; Chisholm lifts YankeesJul 11
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 10, 2026Jul 101 call
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 9, 2026Jul 9
- dailyChurch's groundout swung Milwaukee's dayJul 8
- dailySoto walks off Atlanta, model stumblesJul 71 miss
- weeklyRays and Dodgers lock up October; model stumblesJul 71 miss
- dailyDiamondIQ Daily: July 6 SlateReconstructedJul 61 call1 miss