New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets held on to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 at Tropicana Field on August 31, 2026, completing a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Tampa Bay holding a 68 percent pre-game win probability and closed it at zero. The Mets scored all three of their runs in two separate innings, getting on the board in the fourth before Mark Vientos delivered the pivotal blow in the seventh, a home run off Ian Seymour that shifted win probability 13.4 percent in New York's favor and ultimately proved to be the margin of victory. The Rays answered with a two-run eighth inning that kept the game alive, with Chandler Simpson's single off Daniel Duarte swinging win probability 12.9 percent toward Tampa Bay, only for Cedric Mullins to ground out to Chris Devenski moments later, swinging it 12.9 percent back in the Mets' direction and stalling the rally.

The ninth inning was where the game was ultimately decided, and it was Mets closer Kodai Senga who authored the decisive sequence. With the Rays threatening, Jonny DeLuca drew a walk that pushed Tampa Bay's win probability up 12.3 percent, putting the tying run on base and the go-ahead run at the plate. Senga responded by striking out Yandy Díaz to end the game, a single out that generated a 27.0 percent win-probability swing and represented the largest individual play of the contest. Among pitchers, Robert Stock was the game's most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure, accumulating 35.8 percent in WPA, with Devenski adding 12.9 percent in his critical eighth-inning work. On the offensive side, Díaz led Rays batters with plus-9.5 percent WPA despite the final strikeout, while Carson Benge and DeLuca each contributed positively for Tampa Bay at plus-8.3 and plus-8.2 percent respectively, leaving the Rays short in a game their pre-game numbers suggested they were well-positioned to win.