Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins silenced Busch Stadium on June 27, 2026, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 5-1 to flip what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 53 percent home-win probability entirely to Miami's favor by the final out. The Marlins struck first in the top of the first and never relinquished the lead, plating runs in the third, fourth, and seventh innings to build a comfortable margin against a Cardinals offense that mustered only seven hits with no margin for error.
The decisive stretch came in the third inning, where the game's two sharpest win-probability swings occurred in quick succession. Kyle Stowers delivered a single off Andre Pallante that shifted the win probability 8.6 percent toward Miami, representing the largest positive batting play of the night. The Cardinals responded when Otto Lopez grounded into a double play later in the inning, costing Miami 6.8 percent in win probability and keeping St. Louis within reach momentarily. In the bottom of the third, Jordan Walker's strikeout against Ryan Gusto carried an 8.7 percent swing against the Cardinals, effectively sealing the early tone. St. Louis managed its lone run in the sixth on a Masyn Winn single off Lake Bachar worth 8.6 percent in their favor, but José Fermín immediately erased the momentum with a ground-ball double play that swung the probability back 7.9 percent toward Miami.
Ryan Gusto was the night's standout performer regardless of position, accumulating a remarkable plus-16.9 percent WPA on the mound to anchor the DiamondIQ model's top pitching honors. John King added plus-7.9 percent in relief, and Anthony Bender closed with a plus-2.7 percent contribution. Among the hitters, Xavier Edwards led all batters with plus-10.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Stowers finished at plus-8.1 percent WPA with the game's best RE24 of plus-1.4. Javier Sanoja rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus-6.9 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. Miami's 13 hits against no errors underscored a clean and efficient road performance.