The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 on October 13, 2026, at Tropicana Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Tampa Bay win climbing from a pre-game 54% home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game was scoreless through three innings before Tampa Bay broke it open in the bottom of the fourth, and that four-run swing proved to be the entirety of the contest's decisive action. Cleveland managed only a single run in the seventh and could not threaten further.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth inning against Cleveland starter Parker Messick. Liam Hicks delivered the most consequential swing of the game, a single that added 17.5 percentage points to Tampa Bay's win probability, and a Ben Williamson fielding error compounded the damage with an additional 11.7-point swing. Those two plays alone effectively decided the outcome. Earlier in the game, Messick had escaped some trouble, as Chandler Simpson grounded into a double play in the second inning (-5.6% WPA) and Yandy Díaz did the same in the third (-7.5% WPA), each suppressing Cleveland's chances of building an early lead. Chase DeLauter provided Cleveland's brightest moment with a double off Ian Seymour in the seventh that added 9.6 percentage points to the Guardians' win probability, but the deficit proved insurmountable.
Freddy Peralta was the standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a 23.7% WPA contribution to lead all pitchers. Hicks topped all batters at plus-17.8% WPA with an RE24 of plus-1.8, while DeLauter and Williamson each checked in at plus-13.0% and plus-12.6% WPA respectively, though their efforts came for different teams. Bryan Baker and Shawn Armstrong provided solid bullpen support for Tampa Bay, adding 6.3% and 3.6% in WPA to close out the Guardians. The model leans toward Tampa Bay's pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome, with Peralta's dominant performance setting the tone throughout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.