Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 at Daikin Park on September 4, 2026, with all three Houston runs scoring in the third inning and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win climbing from 53 percent before first pitch to a near-certain 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the third, when Isaac Paredes delivered a double off Merrill Kelly that shifted win probability 11.7 percent in Houston's favor, and Yainer Diaz followed with a home run off Kelly that added another 10.6 percent swing, putting all three Astros runs on the board before Arizona had managed a single score.

Arizona's most damaging moments came in the form of missed opportunities rather than sustained offense. Ketel Marte doubled off Enyel De Los Santos in the sixth to move the needle 10.9 percent toward the Diamondbacks, briefly suggesting a rally, but Nolan Arenado grounded into a double play off Bennett Sousa on the very same frame, a play that swung win probability 20.6 percent back toward Houston and effectively ended Arizona's best threat of the night. Marte ran into similar trouble again in the eighth, grounding into another double play off Bryan Abreu, a minus-13.8 percent swing that confirmed the Diamondbacks' fate. Arizona finished with just three hits and never scored after a solo run in the fourth.

Gabriel Moreno led all players with a WPA of plus-19.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, making him the most impactful individual performer on either side. Diaz contributed plus-10.4 percent WPA and Paredes plus-8.6 percent, while the Houston bullpen locked down the final result with Sousa posting plus-20.8 percent WPA, Abreu adding plus-12.4 percent, and Cristian Javier contributing plus-11.0 percent. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Astros' pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome, with their relief corps neutralizing any Arizona threat after Kelly's third-inning difficulty.