Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Miami Marlins 6-1 at loanDepot park on September 4, 2026, completing a dominant road performance that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami victory at 0% by game's end, down from a pre-game home win probability of 48%. The Cubs were blanked through the first five innings but broke through decisively in the sixth, where Ian Happ drew a walk off Josh Ekness that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 9.1%, followed immediately by a Nico Hoerner single off the same pitcher that added another 6.8% to Chicago's win probability. That sixth-inning sequence produced three runs and effectively put the game beyond reach. Chicago added a run in the seventh and one more in the ninth to finish with six runs on nine hits and no errors.

Miami's most meaningful moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Javier Sanoja laced a double off Aaron Civale that swung win probability by 8.2% in the Marlins' favor, representing the high-water mark of Miami's comeback attempt. However, Joe Mack followed with a strikeout that erased 7.4% of that gain, and the Marlins ultimately managed just one run on four hits across the entire game. Shota Imanaga was the defining force of the contest, posting a model-leading plus 26.6% WPA from the mound and limiting Miami to a Deyvison De Los Santos double in the third as the most threatening moment against him. Reliever Janson Junk added another plus 13.9% WPA in support. Among position players, Griffin Conine led with plus 6.8% WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 0.4, while Nico Hoerner contributed plus 6.3% WPA and a team-best RE24 of plus 1.4, and Alex Bregman chipped in plus 6.2% WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.8.