Houston Astros at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the New York Mets 3-1 at Citi Field on August 28, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested through five innings before Houston seized control with a three-run sixth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave New York a 48 percent chance of winning before first pitch, and the Mets made that probability feel justified through the middle innings, with Carson Benge's fourth-inning double off Hunter Brown representing the game's early flashpoint, swinging win probability 12.9 percent in New York's favor. But A.J. Ewing grounded into a double play the following inning, a play that erased 10.4 percent of New York's win probability and kept the Mets from capitalizing on any sustained threat against Brown.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth against Nate Lavender, when Houston strung together hits that turned the game. Yainer Diaz delivered a single that shifted win probability 15.7 percent toward Houston, and Daulton Varsho followed with a single worth an additional 10.2 percent swing. The three runs that scored in that inning proved to be more than enough as Houston's bullpen shut the door the rest of the way. In the ninth, Josh Hader retired Luis Robert Jr. on a strikeout, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 14.4 percent win probability from the pitching team's perspective, closing out any remaining Mets hope.

Diaz led all batters with a WPA of plus 11.2 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 0.6, while Marcus Semien contributed plus 9.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.9 despite the Astros finishing with only four hits on the night. Hunter Brown was the pitching standout, posting a WPA of plus 19.6 percent, with Bryan Abreu adding plus 17.4 percent out of the bullpen to preserve the two-run lead through the late innings. Christian Scott contributed plus 9.0 percent WPA on the New York side in a losing effort.