St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 7-6 in ten innings on August 21, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 58 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent by the time the final out was recorded. The game was a back-and-forth affair that neither team could put away through nine innings, setting the stage for a dramatic tenth that swung decisively in Philadelphia's favor.

The biggest single play of the game came in the bottom of the tenth when Luis Arraez lined a walk-off single off Luis Gastelum, shifting win probability by 45.5 points and capping a Philadelphia comeback in the inning. That rally was set in motion by Alec Bohm, whose triple off Gastelum added 34.5 points of win probability and put the winning run in position for Arraez to drive home. St. Louis had briefly seized momentum in the top of the tenth when José Fermín's single off Alex McFarlane pushed Cardinals win probability up 37.4 points and gave the visitors a lead, but Philadelphia answered immediately. Earlier in regulation, Jordan Walker's sixth-inning home run off Jesús Luzardo had been the Cardinals' most consequential swing at plus 21.8 points, while J.T. Realmuto's double off Gordon Graceffo in the bottom half responded with an 18.9-point swing for the Phillies.

Arraez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 47.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.6, followed closely by Bohm at plus 40.1 percent and plus 1.5 RE24, and Fermín at plus 23.3 percent and plus 0.9 RE24. On the mound, Justin Bruihl led Philadelphia's relief corps with plus 16.4 percent WPA, with Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering each contributing meaningful leverage holds at plus 13.5 and plus 11.3 percent respectively.