Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Washington Nationals 8-6 at Nationals Park on August 11, 2026, in a game that was closer on the scoreboard than the DiamondIQ model's estimate suggested late. Washington entered with a 44% pre-game win probability, but that figure fell to 0% by the final out, as Chicago built a lead it never fully relinquished. The Cubs scored in six of nine innings, generating most of their decisive damage in a pivotal fourth inning against Jake Irvin that effectively shifted the game's trajectory.
The fourth inning was the central moment of the contest, producing two of the game's four biggest win-probability swings. Nico Hoerner's double off Irvin added 11.8% to Chicago's win probability, and a Carson Kelly fielders choice moments later pushed that figure up another 14.2%, representing the single most impactful play of the game. Seiya Suzuki added a double of his own later in the inning, off Tom Cosgrove, contributing another 10.2% swing as the Cubs pushed across three runs in the frame. Alex Bregman then punctuated Chicago's advantage in the sixth with a home run off Orlando Ribalta worth 10.9% in win probability. Washington briefly applied late pressure, with a two-run eighth cutting into the deficit, but CJ Abrams grounded out to end any remaining threat in the ninth, a play that paradoxically registered at plus 12.0% from Chicago's perspective given how thoroughly it sealed the outcome.
Bregman led all batters with a WPA of plus 14.5% and an RE24 of plus 1.6, while Hoerner posted plus 12.3% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, and Suzuki contributed plus 10.9% WPA alongside a plus 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Ryan Rolison was the most valuable arm by win probability, finishing at plus 10.2%, with Trent Thornton adding plus 6.3% and Jacob Webb contributing plus 1.5% in closing out the game. The Cubs finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while Washington's 11 hits were ultimately not enough to overcome the deficit created in that decisive fourth inning.