Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 1-0 on July 28, 2026, at loanDepot park, with the game's lone run coming in the first inning and never relinquishing that lead. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with a near-even 51 percent home win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly Miami's pitching controlled the Phillies over nine innings.

Sandy Alcantara was the central figure in the outcome, finishing as the game's top-performing pitcher with a WPA of plus-40.2 percent. Two of the game's most damaging plays came off his arm: a Bryan De La Cruz pop out in the top of the second that swung win probability by minus-6.4 percent, and a Garrett Stubbs groundout in the top of the seventh worth minus-5.5 percent, both reflecting moments where Philadelphia had runners on base and failed to capitalize. Aaron Nola worked against his own cause in a different way, as a Liam Hicks double play in the bottom of the fourth removed a Miami scoring threat and shifted win probability by minus-7.0 percent from the Marlins' perspective, briefly keeping the Phillies within reach. Pete Fairbanks closed the door in the ninth, recording the game's single largest win-probability swing when Alec Bohm struck out to end Philadelphia's final threat, a minus-7.1 percent shift.

On offense, Xavier Edwards was Miami's most impactful bat, contributing plus-7.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.5, anchoring what was an otherwise tight and low-scoring affair. Griffin Conine and Joe Mack added modest positive contributions at plus-0.6 and plus-0.5 WPA respectively. Philadelphia managed just four hits against a Miami staff that was economical and precise throughout, and the model's lean toward the Marlins proved prescient from the opening half-inning onward.