Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2 at Tropicana Field on June 27, 2026, in a game that was largely settled by a decisive fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest favoring Tampa Bay at 63% and closed at 100%, reflecting a controlled Rays victory built on timely hitting and steady pitching.
The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Jonathan Aranda connected on a home run off Arizona reliever Jose Cabrera, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 23.6 percentage points and stood as the game's single most consequential play. Aranda had actually been part of a storyline developing as early as the second inning, when a Richie Palacios double play off Cabrera cost the Rays 7.0 percentage points of win probability, briefly stemming their momentum. Tampa Bay added another run in the sixth, extending its lead to three before Ketel Marte gave Arizona a brief measure of hope with a solo home run off Kevin Kelly in the eighth, a swing worth plus 6.4 points to the Diamondbacks. It was too little, too late, as the Rays held the final 4-2 margin.
Aranda finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 27.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.4, while Yandy Díaz contributed plus 3.5 percent WPA on the offensive side for Tampa Bay. On the mound, Michael Grove led all pitchers with plus 17.3 percent WPA, with Casey Legumina adding plus 8.6 and Bryan Baker contributing plus 6.3 in support. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Tampa Bay's pitching staff as the decisive factor, as three relievers combined to protect the lead through the final innings while Arizona's offense managed only two runs on seven hits.