Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-0 at loanDepot park on June 11, 2026, holding Arizona to just three hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Miami as a modest 53% favorite, but that estimate climbed steadily toward certainty as the Marlins staked their claim early and never relinquished it, finishing at 100% by the final out.

The game's decisive moments were concentrated in the middle innings. Miami drew first blood in the bottom of the first and extended the lead in the fourth, where Jakob Marsee's single off Merrill Kelly carried the biggest offensive swing of the night, adding 7.2% to Miami's win probability and representing the top batting contribution by WPA. On the Arizona side, Ketel Marte's double off Tyler Phillips in the top of the fourth generated a 7.0% swing in the Diamondbacks' favor, briefly offering hope, but Arizona could not convert the opportunity into runs. The sixth inning further sealed Arizona's fate, as Gabriel Moreno struck out against Michael Petersen at a cost of 6.6% in win probability, followed by Nolan Arenado's pop out that shed another 5.8%. Jorge Barrosa's strikeout against Anthony Bender in the seventh, a 7.2% swing against Arizona, effectively closed the door on any rally.

On the mound, Tyler Phillips led all pitchers with a 17.5% WPA contribution, and Michael Petersen added 11.7%, with Calvin Faucher chipping in 8.1% as Miami's staff methodically neutralized Arizona's lineup. Offensively, Marsee paced the Marlins at plus-7.1% WPA and plus-0.7 RE24, with Kyle Stowers contributing plus-4.0% WPA and Xavier Edwards adding plus-3.2%. The DiamondIQ model favors Miami's pitching performance as the clear difference-maker in what was a thorough, wire-to-wire victory for the Marlins.