The Baltimore Orioles defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 11, 2026, handing San Francisco a comfortable home loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected almost entirely by game's end, swinging from a 54% Baltimore pre-game win probability to 100% at the final out. The Giants managed ten hits but were unable to cluster them effectively against a Baltimore pitching staff that kept San Francisco off the board when it mattered most.
The game's decisive sequence arrived in the third and fourth innings, where Baltimore broke the contest open against Logan Webb. Gunnar Henderson's home run in the bottom of the third shifted win probability by 10.9 percentage points, and Jeremiah Jackson followed with a pivotal double in the bottom of the fourth that moved the needle another 11.5 points. Those two plays against Webb represented the clearest turning point of the evening. San Francisco briefly applied pressure when Jung Hoo Lee singled in the top of the fourth for a 7.9-point swing off Chris Bassitt, but Rafael Devers flew out to strand runners in the fifth, a moment that erased 7.3 points of win probability and effectively closed the door on any Giants rally. Jackson added a home run in the seventh off Caleb Kilian for another 7.4-point swing, finishing as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus-16.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.0.
On the mound, Baltimore's Grant Wolfram was the bullpen's standout, contributing plus-12.4 WPA, with Rico Garcia adding plus-7.2. Colton Cowser finished alongside Henderson as Baltimore's other notable offensive contributors, each posting plus-0.5 RE24. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Baltimore's combination of timely pitching and Jackson's multi-hit, multi-homer performance as the primary explanation for the four-run margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.