Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Washington Nationals 3-1 at Tropicana Field on June 28, 2024, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 57% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The Rays built their margin incrementally, scoring in the second, third, and sixth innings while holding Washington to a single run in the seventh. Tampa Bay's pitching staff proved to be the decisive factor, with Zach Eflin leading all players with a +24.5% WPA contribution, methodically suppressing a Nationals lineup that managed only five hits and committed one error.
Jose Siri supplied the offensive punch for Tampa Bay, accounting for the two most impactful batting plays of the game. His home run off Mitchell Parker in the second inning added 7.4% to the Rays' win probability, and he followed with another home run in the sixth, this one off Jacob Barnes, which added another 8.0%. Combined, Siri finished with a +16.0% WPA and a +2.0 RE24, easily the most productive offensive performance of the night for either side. Isaac Paredes added to the damage with a single off Parker in the third inning that contributed an additional +8.0% WPA swing.
Washington's best moment came in the seventh inning when CJ Abrams drew a hit by pitch off Kevin Kelly, a sequence that generated a +7.9% WPA shift and kept a rally briefly alive. Abrams finished the game at +5.0% WPA and +1.0 RE24, while Jacob Young contributed +6.7% WPA for the Nationals. A Lane Thomas fielders choice out against Eflin in the third inning proved particularly damaging for Washington, draining 6.7% from the Nationals' win probability at a moment when they had an opportunity to get on the board early. Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks closed things out for Tampa Bay with WPA figures of +8.1% and +6.3% respectively, completing a well-distributed pitching effort for the Rays.