Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays edged the Minnesota Twins 3-2 in ten innings on June 19, 2024, at Target Field, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 62 percent pre-game home win probability for Minnesota and reducing it to zero by the final out. The game was a tightly contested affair that produced just three combined runs through nine innings, with Tampa Bay scratching across single runs in the third, seventh, and tenth, while Minnesota answered in the third and fifth before running out of answers.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth inning, where a pair of plays shifted the contest dramatically. A fielding error by Jorge Alcala on a Jonny DeLuca at-bat swung win probability 32.1 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, the single largest swing of the game, and a José Caballero groundout against Alcala added another 23.1 percent in the Rays' direction as the runner moved into scoring position and eventually scored. The Twins mounted a response in the bottom of the tenth, but Carlos Correa's flyout off Phil Maton ended the threat and, despite registering a positive 31.6 percent win-probability swing for Minnesota, left the Twins stranded and handed Tampa Bay the win. Earlier, Yandy Díaz's lineout in the eighth off Josh Staumont had been the costliest out for the Rays, costing them 15.2 percent in win probability.

Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Randy Arozarena led all batters with a plus-26.0 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, providing the most sustained offensive contribution of any player on either side. Jonny DeLuca contributed plus-22.0 percent WPA, his involvement in the error play proving central to Tampa Bay's run-scoring tenth. On the mound, Jhoan Duran paced Minnesota's pitching staff with plus-13.5 percent WPA, while Joe Ryan added plus-12.6 percent and Tampa Bay's Steven Okert contributed plus-11.2 percent in what was ultimately a bullpen-decided game.