Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Miami Marlins 3-1 on June 16, 2024, at Nationals Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 70% pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100%. Washington built its winning margin through two pivotal innings, with the scoring beginning in the first when the Nationals pushed across a run, then Miami briefly drew level in the top of the fifth on a Jazz Chisholm Jr. single off Mitchell Parker that carried a win-probability swing of plus 10.6%. Washington answered in the bottom half when Jacob Young hit a home run off Jesús Luzardo, a plus 12.4% swing that put the Nationals back ahead, and Ildemaro Vargas then extended the lead with a go-ahead double off Anthony Bender in the sixth, the single highest-impact play of the game at plus 12.6%. An Otto Lopez double off Kyle Finnegan in the top of the ninth, worth plus 5.7%, represented Miami's last meaningful threat, but Washington closed out the 3-1 final without further incident.

On the offensive side, Jacob Young finished as the game's top batter by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 9.5% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, while Vargas contributed plus 8.2% WPA and plus 0.5 RE24 on the strength of his sixth-inning double. Chisholm led Miami's position players with plus 7.5% WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the mound, Derek Law led all pitchers at plus 11.7% WPA, supported by starter Mitchell Parker at plus 9.7% WPA. Luzardo posted plus 8.9% WPA despite yielding the Chisholm single, as a Luis García Jr. grounded-into-double-play in the fourth, a minus 6.6% swing against Miami, helped Luzardo limit the damage. Washington's 9 hits to Miami's 8 reflected a relatively even offensive output, but the Nationals' timely hitting in the fifth and sixth innings proved the decisive difference.