MLB Recap · June 15, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

CLE8
Final
SD6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE5101000108140
SD302010000690

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians overcame a hostile road environment at Petco Park on June 15, 2023, defeating the San Diego Padres 8-6 to erase what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 55 percent pre-game home win probability for San Diego. Cleveland struck early and decisively, plating five runs in the first inning to set the tone, and the Padres never fully recovered despite persistent attempts to claw back into the game. The Guardians finished with 14 hits against no errors, while San Diego managed nine hits of their own in a game that was closer in feel than the final margin might suggest.

The swing plays told the story of how both teams fought for control. Xander Bogaerts grounding into a double play in the bottom of the fourth off Nick Sandlin proved to be the most damaging single moment for San Diego, costing the Padres 16.2 percent in win probability at a point when they were trying to mount a response. Trent Grisham partially answered with a double off Eli Morgan in the fifth that added 15.4 percent to San Diego's chances, keeping the game alive, and Manny Machado's strikeout against Logan Allen in the second had already sapped 14.2 percent from the home side earlier. Andrés Giménez pushed Cleveland's cushion further with a single off Nick Martinez in the eighth worth 14.2 percent, and Jake Cronenworth's groundout to end the ninth sealed things at a 12.0 percent swing in Cleveland's favor.

José Ramírez led all position players with a 17.6 percent WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-2.8, anchoring Cleveland's offensive effort across the night. Juan Soto was San Diego's most productive bat despite the loss, posting 11.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7, with Grisham adding 11.1 percent WPA of his own. On the mound, Trevor Stephan was Cleveland's most valuable reliever at plus-14.2 percent WPA, with Cody Morris adding 7.9 percent and Nick Sandlin contributing 5.9 percent as the bullpen held the Padres scoreless over the final five innings to preserve the two-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalSD win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 55.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Xander Bogaerts Grounded Into DP
Bot 4th · off Nick Sandlin
-16.2%
Trent Grisham Double
Bot 5th · off Eli Morgan
+15.4%
Manny Machado Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Logan Allen
-14.2%
Andrés Giménez Single
Top 8th · off Nick Martinez
+14.2%
Jake Cronenworth Groundout
Bot 9th · off Emmanuel Clase
+12.0%

Top Batters by WPA

José Ramírez+17.6%+2.8 RE24
Juan Soto+11.6%+1.7 RE24
Trent Grisham+11.1%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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