MLB Recap · June 6, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

AZ10
Final
WSH5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ10023220010120
WSH400010000572

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Washington Nationals a 10-5 defeat at Nationals Park on June 6, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foreshadowed from early on, with Washington's pre-game win probability sitting at just 37% and ultimately collapsing to 0% by the final out. Arizona did its most decisive damage in waves, scoring in the first, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh innings while the Nationals managed only a single run in the fifth. The D-backs finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Washington's two miscues on seven hits told the story of a club that compounded its troubles at both the plate and in the field.

The swing plays that defined the contest were spread across multiple frames. Josh Rojas delivered the single most impactful offensive moment of the game with a sixth-inning single off Chad Kuhl that shifted Arizona's win probability by plus 15.0 percentage points, underscoring how thoroughly the D-backs kept the pressure on even after building a comfortable lead. Gabriel Moreno's single off Erasmo Ramírez in the fifth added another 12.9 percentage points in Arizona's favor, and Pavin Smith's single off Jake Irvin in the fourth contributed 11.6 points. Washington's most meaningful moment came in the bottom of the fifth when Lane Thomas hit a home run off Tommy Henry, a swing worth plus 12.4 percentage points from the Nationals' perspective, though it proved too little to alter the game's trajectory.

Among the standout performers, Rojas led all batters with a plus 15.6% WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Luis García Jr. posted a nearly identical plus 15.5% WPA mark. Pavin Smith rounded out the top three offensive contributors with plus 12.6% WPA. On the mound, José Ruiz was the most valuable pitcher in the game by WPA at plus 18.4%, a figure that reflected Arizona's ability to keep Washington's lineup at bay in the middle frames. Jake Irvin, pitching for Washington, still managed a positive plus 1.5% WPA despite the loss, a sign that Arizona's offense was largely fueled by run production against other members of the Nationals' staff.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalWSH win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 36.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Josh Rojas Single
Top 6th · off Chad Kuhl
+15.0%
Ketel Marte Groundout
Top 2nd · off Jake Irvin
-13.8%
Gabriel Moreno Single
Top 5th · off Erasmo Ramírez
+12.9%
Lane Thomas Home Run
Bot 5th · off Tommy Henry
+12.4%
Pavin Smith Single
Top 4th · off Jake Irvin
+11.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Josh Rojas+15.6%+1.4 RE24
Luis García Jr.+15.5%+0.2 RE24
Pavin Smith+12.6%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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