Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins stunned the Cubs 8-2 at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2026, erasing a 60 percent pre-game home win probability that the DiamondIQ model had assigned to Chicago and sending it to zero by the final out. The game remained tightly contested through eleven innings with Miami holding a slim one-run edge before the Marlins blew it open with a six-run explosion in the top of the twelfth. The Cubs had managed to answer a fourth-inning Marlins run with two of their own in the bottom of the sixth on Michael Busch's fielder's choice off Cade Gibson, a play that added 14.6 percent to Chicago's win probability at the time, but Miami's pitching staff held firm the rest of the way.
The decisive shift in the game's probability came across the final two extra innings. In the top of the eleventh, Otto Lopez delivered a single off Ryan Zeferjahn that swung win probability by 32.0 percent in Miami's favor, though a Joe Mack pop out off Caleb Thielbar temporarily clawed 19.2 percent back toward Chicago. The Cubs could not capitalize on the opening, and in the top of the twelfth, Griffin Conine punished Thielbar with a single that produced the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 36.5 percent, effectively sealing the outcome. Jakob Marsee added another single off Thielbar for a further 16.7 percent gain as the Marlins pushed across six runs to put the contest away.
Among individual performers, Conine finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus 24.6 percent alongside a 0.3 RE24 mark, with Lopez just behind at plus 24.4 percent WPA and a team-best 0.9 RE24. Seiya Suzuki posted a notable plus 24.2 percent WPA despite a negative 0.2 RE24, reflecting his contributions in high-leverage contexts. On the mound, Janson Junk led all pitchers with plus 28.0 percent WPA, supported by Ryan Rolison at plus 18.2 percent and Daniel Palencia at plus 16.3 percent, as Miami's collective pitching effort kept Chicago scoreless across six extra frames to complete a convincing road victory.