Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-3 on September 20, 2026, at PNC Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 62 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent as Pittsburgh sealed the victory in the late innings. Kansas City struck first with a run in the top of the first, and the Pirates answered with Oneil Cruz's home run off Michael Wacha in the bottom of the fourth, a swing that added 11.9 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability. Spencer Horwitz then pushed the advantage further in the bottom of the sixth with a single off Wacha that shifted the win probability by 13.1 percent, giving Pittsburgh a 2-1 lead heading into the seventh.
The Royals responded in the top of the seventh when Vinnie Pasquantino launched a two-run home run off Carmen Mlodzinski, the single biggest momentum shift from Kansas City's side at plus 29.1 percent win probability, briefly putting the Royals ahead 3-2. That lead was short-lived. Rafael Flores Jr. delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the eighth, connecting off Nate Pearson for a home run that swung the win probability by 32.1 percent and pushed Pittsburgh back in front 4-3. That proved to be the game's turning point that neither team could overcome. Isaac Collins represented Kansas City's final serious threat in the top of the ninth before a flyout off Mason Montgomery erased 12.7 percent of the Royals' remaining hope.
Flores Jr. finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 37.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.1, and Pasquantino's plus 29.1 percent WPA was the standout individual effort for Kansas City despite the loss. On the mound, Mason Montgomery led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with a plus 15.2 percent WPA contribution in closing out the win, supported by Jose Cuas at plus 11.5 percent and Wilber Dotel at plus 11.4 percent. The final line showed Kansas City out-hitting Pittsburgh nine to eight but committing the same number of errors as the Pirates while failing to convert when it mattered most.