Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Miami Marlins 7-3 at Petco Park on September 20, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, with San Diego entering at a 61% pre-game win probability and closing at 100%. The Padres built their advantage methodically, scoring in the second, fourth, seventh, and eighth innings while holding Miami scoreless until a three-run seventh kept the Marlins from being shut out entirely. San Diego finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while Miami managed just four hits and an error in a largely one-sided contest.
The game's most impactful sequence came in the seventh inning, where the two biggest individual plays by win probability occurred in back-to-back halves. Javier Sanoja delivered a home run off Walker Buehler in the top half that swung win probability 22.3 points in Miami's favor, representing the single largest WPA play of the night and briefly tightening the contest. Fernando Tatis Jr. answered with a home run off Bradley Blalock in the bottom half, a swing worth 13.1 percentage points that effectively re-established San Diego's command. Jake Cronenworth had bookended the game's decisive stretches, connecting for a home run off Sandy Alcantara in the second inning worth 14.0 points and adding another off Blalock in the eighth worth 8.1 points.
Cronenworth finished as the night's top performer by both major metrics, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-26.9 and an RE24 of plus-4.3, anchoring the Padres offense across multiple critical moments. Sanoja led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.2 despite being on the losing side, while Tatis posted plus-10.2. On the pitching side, Bradgley Rodriguez led San Diego's relief corps with a WPA of plus-8.1, neutralizing Miami's attempts at a comeback after the Marlins briefly made noise in the seventh. Otto Lopez's groundout into a double play in the top of the eighth, costing Miami 8.9 points of win probability off Rodriguez, effectively closed the door on any meaningful rally.