Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals handed the St. Louis Cardinals a lopsided 9-1 defeat at Busch Stadium on September 18, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 56 percent pre-game home win probability for St. Louis into a shutout of any realistic Cardinals comeback. Washington struck early and often, scoring three in the first inning and four more in the third to effectively decide the game before the middle innings arrived. St. Louis committed three errors on the night, compounding the damage from a Cardinals pitching staff that could not contain the Nationals lineup. The DiamondIQ model's estimate dropped to zero percent by the final out.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the third, when Dylan Crews connected on a home run off Kyle Leahy that swung win probability 11.4 percent in Washington's favor, the single largest play of the game. The Cardinals had their best opportunity to change the game's complexion in the bottom of the second, when Masyn Winn lined out against Cade Cavalli in a spot that cost St. Louis 11.1 percent in win probability, and earlier in the bottom of the first, Alec Burleson's strikeout against Cavalli had already bled away 8.5 percent. Back-to-back positive contributions from Jorbit Vivas, whose groundout in the first generated a 7.2 percent swing, and Jacob Young, whose lineout in the second added 7.1 percent, illustrated how Washington's offense kept building pressure even when balls were put in play.
Cade Cavalli was the standout performer of the night, leading all pitchers with a 23.5 percent WPA contribution as he held St. Louis largely in check throughout his outing. On the offensive side, Crews led all batters at plus-11.4 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Young finished at plus-7.7 percent WPA and Vivas added plus-7.2 percent. Washington finished with seven hits and no errors, while the Cardinals matched the Nationals in hits but could not overcome their three defensive miscues or the early deficit that Cavalli and Washington's offense constructed through the game's opening three innings.