Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at Citi Field on September 14, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win beginning at 52% before the game and falling to 0% by the final out. Baltimore scored once in the second inning and added what proved to be the decisive run in the eighth, while New York managed its lone run in the fourth on an A.J. Ewing home run off Brandon Young, a swing that added 12.1% to the Mets' win probability at that moment.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Gunnar Henderson launched a home run off Dedniel Núñez to push Baltimore ahead 2-1, a blow that shifted win probability by 21.3% in the Orioles' favor. The Mets threatened in the bottom half, but A.J. Ewing's flyout off Grant Wolfram deflated New York's chances by 16.5%. The final threat came in the ninth, where Francisco Lindor's flyout off Rico Garcia ended the game and, from the Mets' perspective, represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at 31.6%. Wolfram was the Orioles' most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus-23.3%, while Jonah Tong contributed plus-19.8% and Brandon Young added plus-14.0%.

Lindor led all position players with a WPA of plus-23.4% despite the negative result on his final at-bat, a reflection of his earlier contributions that kept New York viable deep into the game. Henderson finished at plus-14.9% WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.5, his eighth-inning home run standing as the hit that ultimately separated the two clubs. Colton Cowser rounded out the top performers with a WPA of plus-4.8% and a RE24 of plus-0.4 for Baltimore.