Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros edged the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 at Citizens Bank Park on September 10, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Philadelphia a 59 percent chance of winning at home. The game turned on a single dramatic swing in the top of the ninth: Cam Smith launched a home run off Jhoan Duran that shifted win probability by 38.4 percentage points in Houston's favor, erasing a 1-1 tie and ultimately proving to be the decisive blow. Smith finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-42.5 percent, with a RE24 of plus-1.2, making his late contribution the defining moment of the contest.

The Phillies had generated their only run in the bottom of the fifth when Alec Bohm doubled off Cristian Javier, a swing worth plus-13.0 percent in Philadelphia's win probability at the time. Javier, however, limited the damage and finished with a WPA of plus-23.8 percent, matching Zack Wheeler's contribution on the Philadelphia side. Wheeler was particularly effective in the seventh, when he struck out Yainer Diaz in a moment that swung win probability by minus-12.3 percent against Houston. The Astros had also hurt themselves in the eighth, when Isaac Paredes hit into a double play off Jose Alvarado that cost them 20.4 percentage points of win probability and briefly kept Philadelphia in a position to close out the game.

Josh Hader came on to protect the lead in the bottom of the ninth but could not hold off the Phillies entirely, though Trea Turner's groundout to end the inning — worth plus-31.6 percent in win probability from Philadelphia's perspective given the leverage of the moment — ultimately sealed the Astros' victory. Bryan Abreu contributed plus-10.9 percent WPA on the mound for Houston, and Jose Altuve added plus-11.3 percent at the plate to round out the Astros' key contributors in a game that saw Philadelphia manage just three hits against Houston's pitching staff.