Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Houston Astros 4-3 in ten innings on September 5, 2026, at Daikin Park, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 53 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and reducing it to zero by the final out. Houston grabbed an early advantage with two runs in the third, an inning in which Isaac Paredes delivered a key single off Brandon Pfaadt that carried a win-probability swing of plus 16.4 percent in the Astros' favor. Arizona answered with a run in the fifth to keep pace, and then Ketel Marte swung the game decisively in the eighth, launching a home run off AJ Blubaugh that added 18.6 percent in win probability for the Diamondbacks and tied the contest heading into the late innings. The D-backs pushed ahead with single runs in the seventh and eighth before the Astros forced extras, setting up a dramatic tenth.

In the tenth inning, Arizona extended its lead on a Corbin Carroll forceout off Bryan King, a play worth plus 21.1 percent in win probability, preceded by Geraldo Perdomo's sacrifice bunt that shifted the probability needle another 16.4 percent in Arizona's favor. Houston had one final chance in the bottom half, but Brandyn Garcia struck out Jose Altuve to end the game, a moment that registered as the single most impactful play of the night at plus 31.6 percent. Altuve finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 34.5 percent despite a minus 0.3 RE24, a figure reflecting how his earlier plate appearances generated leverage for Houston before his strikeout sealed the loss. Lars Nootbaar posted the strongest run-environment contribution among position players at plus 1.7 RE24 alongside a plus 16.5 percent WPA. On the mound, Josh Hader led Arizona's relievers with a plus 13.5 percent WPA, followed by Juan Morillo at plus 10.9 percent and Enyel De Los Santos at plus 9.2 percent, a trio that collectively shut down Houston's offense over the game's most critical innings.