Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held on for a 2-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on August 31, 2026, scoring both of their runs across the second and third innings and then protecting the lead through nine. Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia bullpen limited Arizona to a single run on nine hits, while the Diamondbacks' error contributed to a night that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability start at 50 percent and close at zero.

The game's decisive stretch came in the eighth and ninth innings, where the Phillies bullpen slammed the door in back-to-back fashion. José Alvarado was the central figure in the eighth, his strikeout of Tim Tawa representing the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at minus 22.1 percent for Arizona, followed immediately by a pop out from Nolan Arenado that cost the Diamondbacks another 10.6 percent. Alvarado finished as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus 23.3 percent. Alex McFarlane was nearly as impactful at plus 21.3 percent, and Jhoan Duran closed the ninth despite a Gabriel Moreno groundout that briefly shifted 21.4 percent of win probability toward Arizona before Geraldo Perdomo struck out to end the threat.

On the offensive side, Moreno was paradoxically both Arizona's most dangerous performer and the final out, finishing as the night's top batter by WPA at plus 32.4 percent and plus 0.8 RE24, driven largely by his third-inning double off Nola that added 11.6 percent to Arizona's win probability and accounted for the Diamondbacks' lone run. Bryce Harper led Philadelphia's contributors at plus 11.7 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Ketel Marte added plus 9.2 percent WPA for Arizona. The Phillies' pitching staff ultimately proved the difference, holding firm through a nine-hit Arizona effort that fell one run short.