Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a two-run deficit with a six-run ninth inning to defeat the Washington Nationals 6-2 at Nationals Park on August 30, 2026. Washington had carried a narrow lead into the final frame, but Miami's late explosion turned a competitive game into a lopsided final, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a pregame 50-50 split to a 0% home win probability by game's end.

The decisive sequence fell entirely on the shoulders of Nationals reliever Tom Cosgrove, who surrendered all six runs in the ninth and was responsible for the three highest win-probability swings of the night. The most damaging blow came from Joe Mack, whose sacrifice fly added 37.2 percentage points of win probability to Miami's ledger and proved to be the single most impactful play of the game. A hit by pitch to Jakob Marsee earlier in the inning shifted the probability 19.2 points in the Marlins' favor, and an Otto Lopez home run moved the needle another 16.1 points, extending the lead and effectively ending Washington's chances. Before the ninth-inning collapse, Nationals infielder Nasim Nuñez had provided Washington's most meaningful offensive moment with a double in the fifth off Janson Junk worth 14.3 points, though he later erased much of that value with a bases-loaded double play in the seventh that swung 13.8 points back toward Miami.

On the individual leaderboards, Mack led all batters with a 37.2% WPA and a 0.6 RE24, while Jakob Marsee finished at plus-17.0% WPA and a 0.7 RE24. Griffin Conine posted the best RE24 among Miami's top contributors at 1.0, finishing with a 16.3% WPA. The pitching credit belonged to Clayton Beeter, who led Miami's staff with a 25.7% WPA, followed by Andrew Alvarez at 22.9% and Calvin Faucher at 8.9%, as the trio held Washington in check through eight innings and set the stage for the stunning ninth-inning rally.