Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks shut out the Chicago Cubs 2-0 on August 26, 2026, at Chase Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was a tightly contested pitchers' duel through the first five innings, with neither side generating a run. The decisive moment came in the bottom of the sixth when Jordan Lawlar connected on a home run off Matthew Boyd, a swing that added 13.8 percent to Arizona's win probability and broke the scoreless tie. The Cubs had their best chance to respond immediately prior, as Pete Crow-Armstrong's double off Eduardo Rodriguez in the top of the sixth represented a positive 8.3 percent swing for Chicago, but Alex Bregman's flyout cost the Cubs 8.2 percent and Nico Hoerner's strikeout bled away another 7.1 percent, effectively extinguishing the rally and handing momentum back to Arizona.

Lawlar was the clear offensive catalyst for the Diamondbacks, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-19.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3, capping his evening with a single off Ryan Zeferjahn in the bottom of the eighth that added another 8.0 percent to Arizona's win probability. On the pitching side, Eduardo Rodriguez was the dominant force, generating plus-37.7 percent WPA as he stifled a Cubs lineup that managed just two hits on the night. Matthew Boyd and Brandyn Garcia contributed plus-13.6 percent and plus-10.8 percent WPA respectively, combining with Rodriguez to hold Chicago completely off the scoreboard and secure the two-game final.