Houston Astros at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros overcame a 60 percent pre-game disadvantage on the road to defeat the New York Yankees 9-7 at Yankee Stadium on August 25, 2026, handing New York a loss the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned zero percent closing win probability. Houston scored in six of nine innings, finishing with 14 hits and no errors against a Yankees defense that committed two, while the Astros bullpen locked down the final frames to secure the win.

The game turned on a sequence of high-leverage swings that shifted momentum entirely toward Houston. Cody Bellinger gave New York its biggest lift in the bottom of the third, connecting on a home run off Ethan Pecko that represented a +25.2 percent swing in the DiamondIQ model's estimate of New York's win probability, briefly putting the Yankees in command. The Astros answered methodically, and Jeremy Peña's home run off Fernando Cruz in the top of the sixth registered a +23.6 percent swing, effectively erasing New York's advantage. Then, in the top of the eighth, Yordan Alvarez delivered a triple off Brent Headrick worth +23.1 percent, pushing Houston's cushion to a near-insurmountable level. New York's best chance to respond in the bottom of the eighth evaporated when Austin Wells grounded into a double play off Bryan Abreu, a play the model valued at -19.0 percent for the Yankees.

Among individual performers, Luis García Jr. was the game's most impactful offensive contributor, finishing with a WPA of +39.2 percent and a RE24 of +3.6, anchored by his home run off Pecko in the fifth that carried a +21.1 percent swing. Yainer Diaz added +34.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of +3.1, while Bellinger's +27.2 percent WPA led all Yankees batters despite the team's loss. On the mound, Josh Hader led Houston's relievers with +9.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Bennett Sousa at +9.1 percent and Yerry De los Santos at +8.3 percent, a trio that preserved the two-run lead through the final innings.