Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 3-1 on August 23, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, winning a game that remained scoreless through five innings before a decisive sixth-inning burst proved to be all the Rays needed. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Baltimore a 43 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that ultimately fell to zero percent by the final out.

The critical sequence came in the top of the sixth, when Junior Caminero delivered a single off Shane Baz that swung win probability 24.1 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, the single largest play of the game. Baz was subsequently replaced by Grant Wolfram, and Chandler Simpson extended the damage with a single of his own, adding another 11.3 percent to the Rays' win probability. Tampa Bay plated all three of its runs in that inning and never looked back. Earlier in the game, a Yandy Diaz groundout into a double play in the third inning off Baz had briefly suppressed the Rays' chances by 9.5 percent, representing the lone significant momentum check Tampa Bay faced on the night.

On the mound, Nick Martinez was the standout contributor, finishing with a game-high plus-24.3 percent WPA for the Rays' pitching staff, supported by Cam Booser at plus-6.3 percent and Kevin Kelly at plus-5.2 percent. The Baltimore offense managed just two hits on the evening, with Gunnar Henderson's ninth-inning groundout off Bryan Baker accounting for plus-9.0 percent WPA for the Orioles in a largely quiet night at the plate. A fielding error on a Leody Taveras at-bat also added 10.9 percent to Baltimore's win probability in the ninth, but the late rally fell well short, with the Orioles managing only a single run in their final frame.