Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 6-2 at loanDepot park on August 23, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate all but guaranteed by game's end, moving from a 59% pre-game home win probability to a final figure of 100%. Miami did its most consequential damage in the middle innings, turning a tight contest into a comfortable margin through a pair of decisive frames. The bottom of the fifth proved to be the game's hinge point, where Xavier Edwards delivered a single off Trevor Williams that carried a win-probability swing of plus 19.2%, the single largest play of the night by that measure. Miami then extended its advantage in the sixth when Joe Mack doubled, again off Williams, generating a plus 12.1% win-probability swing and effectively closing the door on any Washington comeback.

Washington's most meaningful response came in the top of the sixth, where Jorbit Vivas doubled off Calvin Faucher for a plus 13.0% swing, and Daylen Lile had earlier contributed a plus 7.0% double off Janson Junk in the fourth. But the Nationals were unable to string enough together, and a key Abimelec Ortiz strikeout against Michael Petersen in the top of the fifth, costing Washington 9.5% in win probability, illustrated how Washington's offensive opportunities stalled at critical moments. The final line showed Washington managing just five hits against no errors, while Miami posted eight hits.

Among individual performers, Edwards finished as the night's top batter by WPA at plus 15.7% with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Mack posted plus 12.7% WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus 1.3. Dylan Crews contributed plus 7.5% WPA on the Washington side. On the mound, Jackson Kent led all pitchers with a plus 13.4% WPA, followed by Jack Ralston at plus 9.5% and Michael Petersen at plus 5.7%, as Miami's pitching staff collectively controlled Washington's lineup throughout.