Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Miami Marlins 4-1 on August 19, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 59% win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Philadelphia built its lead methodically, scoring in four separate innings while holding Miami to a single run on seven hits.

The most consequential swing of the game came in the bottom of the third, when Luis Arraez hit a home run off Sandy Alcantara that shifted win probability by plus 15.9 percentage points, effectively seizing control of the contest. Arraez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 16.6%, with an RE24 of plus 1.6. Garrett Stubbs had contributed earlier with a run-scoring single off Alcantara in the bottom of the second, adding plus 7.3% in win probability and finishing at plus 8.1% WPA overall. Miami's best counterpunch came in the top of the sixth, when Javier Sanojo homered off Aaron Nola for a plus 9.4% swing, though Sanoja's effort ultimately went unrewarded in a losing cause despite finishing second among all batters at plus 15.9% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Trea Turner added a double off John King in the seventh for another plus 8.3% push that helped seal the outcome.

Aaron Nola was the story on the mound, finishing with a game-high plus 19.5% WPA among pitchers and limiting the Marlins despite surrendering the Sanoja home run. Jonathan Bowlan followed with plus 4.5% WPA, aided by Xavier Edwards's flyout in the top of the eighth that swung win probability minus 6.4% against Miami. Jhoan Duran contributed plus 2.4% WPA to close out what became a clean, error-free performance by both clubs, with the Phillies' pitching staff ultimately proving the difference in a game the DiamondIQ model leaned toward Philadelphia from the opening pitch.