St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-4 at Great American Ball Park on August 19, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through three innings before the Reds pulled away on the strength of a handful of pivotal swings. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with a 51 percent home win probability, a near coin-flip that ultimately resolved to certainty, finishing at 100 percent in Cincinnati's favor.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the sixth, when Sal Stewart connected for a home run off Matthew Liberatore, a swing that added 30.8 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and served as the clearest inflection point of the contest. Stewart finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-27.0 percent, with a RE24 of plus-1.9, underscoring how central he was to the Reds' win. Matt McLain reinforced the lead with a single off Justin Bruihl in the bottom of the eighth, adding 9.9 percent in win probability, and he ended the night at plus-17.4 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.5. On the mound, Luis Mey led Cincinnati's pitching staff with plus-10.8 percent WPA, while Brock Burke contributed plus-8.5 percent, aided in part when José Fermín popped out in the top of the seventh to drain 8.5 percent from St. Louis's chances.

The Cardinals generated some traction in the top of the fourth when Nathan Church singled off Chase Burns to add 10.5 percent in win probability, and Church closed with plus-7.8 percent WPA on the night. St. Louis mounted a two-run rally in the ninth but fell short, with Masyn Winn's groundout off Emilio Pagán costing the Cardinals 10.9 percent in win probability and effectively closing the door. The Cardinals finished with nine hits and an error against Cincinnati's seven hits and clean defense, a margin that reflected a Cardinals club that generated contact but could not convert it into the runs necessary to overcome the Reds' earlier bursts of offense.