New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees edged the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 in ten innings at Rogers Centre on August 16, 2026, completing a back-and-forth extra-inning affair that the DiamondIQ model had given Toronto a 47 percent chance of winning before first pitch. The decisive blow came in the top of the tenth when Ben Rice drove a home run off Braydon Fisher, a swing that shifted win probability by 33.7 points in New York's favor and ultimately proved to be the margin of victory. Toronto had forced extras in the bottom of the ninth on Ernie Clement's sacrifice fly off David Bednar, a play that added 29.3 points of win probability for the Blue Jays and kept them alive after Alejandro Kirk drew a walk earlier in the inning worth 17.5 points. George Springer's pop out in that same frame cost Toronto 17.0 points of win probability, a missed opportunity that made Clement's subsequent sac fly all the more critical. Tim Hill then closed out the Blue Jays in the bottom of the tenth, with Brett Bateman grounding out to end the game in a sequence that carried 27.0 points of win probability from Toronto's perspective.

Among the individual performers, José Caballero led all players with a WPA of plus-28.9 and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Rice finished at plus-25.3 WPA on the strength of his go-ahead homer. Clement contributed plus-21.8 WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.1, his run-scoring fly ball arriving at exactly the right moment. On the mound, Ryan Weathers was the most valuable arm of the night by WPA at plus-23.8, with Dylan Cease adding plus-15.7 and Paul Sewald contributing plus-11.2 as New York's bullpen managed the late innings well enough to preserve the one-run win and leave the DiamondIQ model's final home win probability at zero percent.