Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Miami Marlins 1-0 on August 14, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in a tightly contested shutout that hinged almost entirely on a single swing in the sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Cincinnati holding a 52 percent home win probability, and after nine innings of scoreless baseball gave way to one decisive moment, that figure closed at 100 percent.

The game's turning point arrived in the bottom of the sixth when Eugenio Suárez drove a double off Sandy Alcantara, a hit that shifted win probability by plus 16.1 percent and stood as the largest single play of the night. That double was ultimately the only run either side would produce, making it the most consequential at-bat of the contest. Miami mounted its most credible threat in the top of the seventh, when Otto Lopez singled off Chase Burns to generate a plus 6.4 percent swing, but Burns responded by retiring Griffin Conine on a strikeout and Javier Sanoja on a groundout, erasing any momentum at a combined cost of minus 11.3 percent to the Marlins. In the ninth, Jakob Marsee grounded out against Emilio Pagán, a minus 7.1 percent swing that effectively closed the door.

Suárez led all batters with a plus 9.6 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24, while Michael Toglia and Graham Pauley contributed modest supplemental value at plus 2.3 and plus 2.1 percent WPA respectively. On the mound, Chase Burns was the game's most dominant force, accumulating plus 36.7 percent WPA, with Alcantara adding plus 20.0 percent and Pagán contributing plus 15.2 percent in relief. Cincinnati recorded six hits to Miami's four, and neither team committed an error in a clean, low-scoring affair decided by one swing.