Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

Toronto held off Boston at Rogers Centre on August 12, 2026, winning 6-4 in a game that remained tightly contested through seven innings before the Blue Jays broke it open with a five-run eighth. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a near-even split, assigning Toronto a 49 percent pre-game home win probability, a figure that crept only modestly as the scoring stayed sparse early. Willson Contreras gave Boston the first real scoring jolt with a solo home run off José Soriano in the top of the fifth, a swing worth plus-12.3 percent in win probability that briefly tilted the game Boston's way. Toronto answered with a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. double play in the bottom of the fifth that erased a potential rally and swung the probability needle back 8.6 percent in the Blue Jays' favor.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Toronto sent five runs across against Red Sox pitching to turn a manageable deficit into a commanding lead. The biggest single moment of the game by WPA was Kazuma Okamoto's single off Tyron Guerrero, which added 18.6 percent to Toronto's win probability and served as the primary catalyst in that five-run frame. Okamoto finished the night as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-23.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7. Ernie Clement contributed a plus-6.0 percent WPA and led all batters with a plus-1.9 RE24, while Contreras finished at plus-4.9 percent WPA. On the mound, José Soriano led all pitchers with plus-17.7 percent WPA despite surrendering the Contreras home run, followed by Tyler Rogers at plus-10.6 and Louis Varland at plus-9.9. Boston mounted a three-run ninth off Varland, including a Andruw Monasterio sacrifice fly that cost Toronto 9.5 percent in win probability, but the Blue Jays held on as the model's estimate reached 100 percent at the final out.