Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies walked off the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 in 12 innings on August 9, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, with J.T. Realmuto delivering the decisive blow. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 60 percent home win probability for Philadelphia, and by the final out it had moved to 100 percent. Realmuto's walk-off single off Lazaro Estrada in the bottom of the 12th was the single most impactful play of the night, shifting win probability by 45.5 points and capping a comeback from what had been a genuinely contested extra-innings affair. Kyle Schwarber had given Philadelphia an early foundation in the bottom of the third, launching a home run off Shane Bieber that represented a 21.4-point swing and set the tone for a night when the Phillies would need every advantage they could manufacture.
Toronto refused to concede, clawing back in a significant way. The Blue Jays mounted their most dangerous threat in the top of the eighth, when Andrés Giménez singled off Orion Kerkering in a sequence that shifted win probability by 30.7 points, fueling a three-run frame that briefly brought Toronto level in the late innings. The Blue Jays also pushed across a run in the top of the 12th on a Brett Bateman single off Caleb Kilian, a play worth 32.0 points of win probability that set up the Phillies' need to answer immediately. An Alejandro Kirk pop out in that same inning, while an out on the scorecard, carried a 23.1-point swing reflecting how precarious Toronto's position had become with the ghost runner in play.
By WPA, Realmuto finished as the game's top performer on either side at plus-55.2 percent, while Kirk was nearly his equal at plus-54.9 percent despite his team falling short, a reflection of how much value he accumulated before the final at-bat. Schwarber rounded out the top three at plus-44.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-4.2, indicating his contributions came in situations that genuinely mattered in run-expectancy terms. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran led all arms at plus-13.5 percent WPA, followed by Tyler Rogers at plus-10.9 percent and Jesús Luzardo at plus-8.7 percent, with Philadelphia's bullpen ultimately holding long enough for Realmuto to end it.