Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 3-2 at Busch Stadium on August 7, 2026, in a game that was largely decided early and then successfully protected through a tense ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring the Cardinals at 65% and closed at 100% following the final out. St. Louis managed just five hits but made them count, while Colorado collected ten hits yet could not convert them into runs when it mattered most. The Cardinals scored two runs in the second inning and added one in the third, which proved to be the game's decisive sequence, as neither side scored again after the fourth.
The swing moments were concentrated at the beginning and end of the game. Iván Herrera's home run off Ryan Feltner in the bottom of the third added 9.9 percentage points to St. Louis's win probability and pushed the Cardinals to a 3-1 lead they would not relinquish. Willi Castro's double off Kyle Leahy in the top of the fourth, which moved the needle 11.7 points in Colorado's favor, kept the Rockies within striking distance at 3-2, but Cole Carrigg had already cost the visitors 8.4 points with a double-play grounder in the third. The most consequential sequence of the night came in the top of the ninth, when Kyle Karros grounded into a double play off Riley O'Brien, swinging win probability 22.8 points against the Rockies and effectively ending any realistic comeback threat, even after Ezequiel Tovar had drawn a walk to generate a brief 10.6-point uptick moments earlier.
On the individual ledger, Masyn Winn led all position players with a WPA of plus-8.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.1, while Willi Castro posted plus-6.8 WPA and the game's best RE24 among hitters at plus-1.2. On the mound, Riley O'Brien was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with plus-15.2 WPA in the ninth, with Caleb Ferguson right behind at plus-13.7. Colorado's inability to add to its lone second-inning run in the late innings ultimately made the Cardinals' modest five-hit output more than sufficient.