Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park on August 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 60 percent pre-game probability of a Philadelphia win before settling at zero by the final out. The Blue Jays scored in four different innings, plating runs in the second, third, fourth, sixth, and eighth frames, while the Phillies managed a pair of runs only in the second, third, and ninth innings but could never fully close the gap against Toronto's pitching staff. The game was decided not by a single dramatic swing but by a ninth-inning sequence that proved costly for Philadelphia.
The bottom of the ninth encapsulated the entire contest's tension. Tyler Rogers navigated a precarious situation in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted sharply on consecutive batters. Luis Arraez drew a walk that swung win probability 24.5 points in Philadelphia's favor, briefly reanimating the Phillies' hopes, but Alec Bohm's forceout immediately reversed the momentum by 27.3 points, the single most consequential play of the game. Brandon Marsh's groundout added another 11.0-point swing in Toronto's direction, and Rogers ultimately closed it out. Earlier, Justin Crawford's fifth-inning double off José Soriano had provided a 13.0-point boost for the Phillies, and a Luis Arraez flyout in the seventh against Brendon Little cost Philadelphia 14.5 points of win probability at a pivotal moment.
Crawford was nonetheless the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a 22.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7. Josh Smith contributed a 18.2 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 for Toronto, while Bryce Harper added 13.4 percent WPA and a plus-1.0 RE24 in a losing effort. On the mound, Brendon Little led all pitchers with a 9.5 percent WPA, with Mason Fluharty and Lazaro Estrada adding 8.1 and 6.7 percent respectively as the Toronto bullpen preserved a lead the Phillies could not fully erase despite holding a seven-run advantage entering the contest in terms of projected probability.