Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs walked off the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 in eleven innings on June 21, 2026, at Wrigley Field, completing a comeback that saw Chicago erase a late deficit and eventually end the game in extra frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 65 percent pre-game probability favoring the home side and finished at 100 percent, reflecting how decisively the late innings swung toward Chicago.

The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the ninth, when Alex Bregman launched a home run off Louis Varland that shifted win probability by 49.4 points, erasing Toronto's 2-1 lead and knotting the game. That single swing was the largest win-probability play of the contest and kept Chicago alive after the Blue Jays had taken the lead on Alejandro Kirk's RBI single off Aaron Civale in the seventh, a hit that had moved Toronto's win probability by 13.0 points in the other direction. Ian Happ contributed a groundout in the same ninth-inning sequence that added another 14.0 points to Chicago's probability, extending the inning and setting the stage for Bregman. In the top of the tenth, Ernie Clement's groundout off Caleb Thielbar added 14.3 points to Toronto's ledger, but the Cubs held firm.

Chicago ultimately ended it in the eleventh when Michael Busch stole third base off Brendon Little, a play worth 35.9 points of win probability that set up the walk-off run. By WPA, Bregman finished as the game's most impactful hitter at plus 44.7 with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Kirk led Toronto's offensive contributions at plus 17.0 WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 despite ending up on the losing side. On the mound, Dylan Cease led all pitchers with a plus 52.7 WPA, underscoring how central his outing was to Chicago's ability to stay competitive long enough for the late-game heroics to unfold.