New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Chicago Cubs 2-1 at Wrigley Field on August 2, 2026, completing a tight road win that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had initially given Chicago a 54 percent chance of winning before shifting entirely to New York by the final out. The Yankees scored all of their runs in the third inning, when José Caballero put them ahead with a home run off Colin Rea that swung win probability 16.4 percent in New York's favor. That two-run blast held up as the margin of victory across an otherwise scoreless contest, with Chicago managing its lone run in the fourth but never finding the breakthrough hit it needed to tie or take the lead.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the final two innings, where closer David Bednar controlled the outcome. Ian Happ's flyout to end the eighth represented a 23.3 percent swing against the Cubs, the single largest win-probability move of the night, as Chicago left a threat unresolved. Michael Conforto then struck out to open the ninth in a manner that added 21.4 percent to New York's win probability, a counterintuitive figure reflecting how deeply the DiamondIQ model's estimate had grown to favor the Yankees by that stage. Nico Hoerner's flyout in the sixth off Brent Headrick and Alex Bregman's strikeout against Gerrit Cole in the same frame further drained what slim margin Chicago retained after the fourth.
Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Brent Headrick led all pitchers with a 21.7 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Rolison at 16.4 percent and Gerrit Cole at 9.6 percent, underscoring how thoroughly New York's pitching staff controlled the game after Caballero gave them the lead. On the offensive side, Conforto finished at plus-21.4 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.3, with Michael Busch contributing plus-20.0 percent WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24, and Caballero closing at plus-15.4 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. The Cubs finished with a costly error and stranded enough opportunities to turn a competitive game into a defeat.