Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the New York Mets a 5-2 defeat at Citi Field on July 31, 2026, converting what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 46 percent pre-game home win probability for New York into a zero percent finish. The game turned decisively in the fifth inning, when Miami plated four runs against a pair of Mets pitchers. Joe Mack's single off Xzavion Curry was the single most impactful offensive play of the night, shifting win probability 12.6 percent in Miami's favor, while Jakob Marsee's double off Kodai Senga added another 11.2 percent swing. The Marlins extended their lead in the sixth on a Kyle Stowers home run off Curry, worth 7.3 percent in win probability. New York's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the eighth, but Luis Robert Jr. grounded into a double play off Tyler Zuber, a swing of negative 11.7 percent that effectively sealed the outcome.

Among individual performers, Joe Mack led all batters with a WPA of plus 16.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.6, anchoring the Marlins' offensive surge. Carson Benge contributed a WPA of plus 12.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 0.9, while on the New York side Francisco Lindor posted a WPA of plus 11.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.4, providing the Mets' most meaningful offensive contribution. On the mound, Janson Junk was the most valuable arm by WPA, posting plus 11.1 percent, with Tyler Zuber and Calvin Faucher adding plus 6.3 and plus 3.2 percent respectively to secure the final three innings for Miami. The Marlins finished with eight hits against seven for New York, with Miami committing the game's only error.