Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

Arizona scored all four of its runs in a single eighth-inning burst to knock off Cleveland 4-1 at Progressive Field on July 31, 2026, a result that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero by the final out. Through seven innings the game was a tightly controlled affair, Cleveland clinging to a 1-0 lead it had taken in the first. Then Erik Sabrowski entered for the Guardians in the top of the eighth and the game unraveled quickly. Gabriel Moreno opened the rally with a single that shifted win probability by 17.5 points, Corbin Carroll drew a walk worth another 16.3 points, and Geraldo Perdomo followed with a single adding 13.8 points. When Matt Festa came on to relieve, Ketel Marte greeted him with a single that moved the needle another 13.4 points, and Arizona had turned a deficit into a four-run lead it would not relinquish.

The standout individual contributors by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting were spread across both the mound and the lineup. Moreno finished with a WPA of plus-14.8 and a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Perdomo posted plus-13.9 WPA and plus-0.6 RE24. Marte led all hitters in run-environment value with a RE24 of plus-1.6 to go with his plus-10.6 WPA. On the pitching side, Tanner Bibee was the story of the game before the eighth ever arrived, accumulating a WPA of plus-36.7 as he held Cleveland to one run on three hits across what appears to have been the bulk of the contest. Mitch Bratt added plus-12.0 WPA in relief, aided in part by Brayan Rocchio grounding into a double play in the bottom of the fourth — a sequence that cost Cleveland minus-7.0 win probability and snuffed out whatever offensive momentum the Guardians might have been building. Arizona finished with six hits and committed no errors, while Cleveland's one error contributed to a quiet afternoon that turned costly in one decisive frame.