Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on July 29, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win opening at 68% before climbing to 100% by the final out. Los Angeles built its lead gradually, scoring in the first, third, fourth, and sixth innings against Seattle starter Emerson Hancock, who absorbed the bulk of the damage. The Mariners managed single runs in the eighth and ninth but never seriously threatened to erase the deficit, finishing with five hits against a Dodgers staff that surrendered just one error across the game.

The third and fourth innings proved decisive in terms of win-probability movement. Freddie Freeman's single off Hancock in the bottom of the third added 6.2% to Los Angeles's win probability, and the fourth inning compounded the damage. Teoscar Hernández doubled off Hancock for a 5.8% swing, and Andy Pages followed with a single that added another 6.8%. A Dalton Rushing strikeout off Hancock in that same frame represented the largest single negative swing for the Mariners at 5.6%, extinguishing what little hope Seattle had of limiting the inning. In the sixth, Shohei Ohtani added insurance with a double off Michael Rucker that shifted the win probability another 5.9% toward Los Angeles.

Pages led all position players with a plus-13.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Ohtani finished at plus-8.5% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. Cole Young contributed plus-8.9% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 for Seattle, providing the Mariners' most meaningful offensive impact in a losing effort. On the pitching side, Eric Lauer was the story, posting a plus-19.0% WPA to pace all pitchers, with Alex Vesia and Edwin Díaz adding plus-2.9% and plus-2.4% respectively in late relief to close out the win.