Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-6 at Nationals Park on July 28, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate favored from the outset, with Washington entering at a 59% pre-game win probability and finishing at 100%. Washington seized control early, putting up four runs in the first inning and adding three more in the fourth to build a lead Toronto could never fully overcome. Luis García Jr. delivered the most impactful single swing of the game in the bottom of the fourth, connecting for a home run off Mason Fluharty that registered a +14.6% win-probability swing, the largest of the night, and he finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at +13.7% with a +1.4 RE24. Kazuma Okamoto also factored into Washington's offensive production, finishing with a +6.8% WPA and +1.6 RE24 to round out the Nationals' standout performers.

Toronto's most dangerous stretch came in the eighth inning, when the Blue Jays pushed three runs across and George Springer launched a home run off Gus Varland that shifted win probability by +11.2% in Toronto's favor, briefly providing some tension before Washington closed the door. Earlier, Daulton Varsho had given the Blue Jays a +10.8% WPA boost with a double off Cade Cavalli in the top of the fourth, though Toronto's rally was blunted in the second inning when Andrés Giménez struck out against Cavalli in a moment that cost the Blue Jays 8.1% in win probability. On the pitching side, Orlando Ribalta led Washington's staff with a +8.1% WPA, followed by Clayton Beeter at +6.3%, with Cavalli contributing +2.6% despite the Varsho double.