Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 7-3 at Busch Stadium on July 27, 2026, handing the Cardinals a loss the DiamondIQ model ultimately deemed a certainty, as St. Louis entered with a 47 percent pre-game win probability and finished at zero. The Cubs built their lead incrementally, scoring in the first three innings before padding the advantage with two runs in the fifth and two more in the ninth. The Cardinals, despite drawing within two runs on a Bryan Torres double in the sixth, could not sustain any offensive momentum against a Cubs pitching staff that held them to seven hits.
The decisive sequence took shape in the third inning, when Alex Bregman drove a home run off Matthew Liberatore, a swing that shifted win probability by 9.8 points in Chicago's favor. That same inning, Michael Busch grounded into a double play off Liberatore, surrendering 5.9 points of win probability back to St. Louis and briefly stalling the Cubs' progress. The Cardinals' brightest moment came in the bottom of the sixth, when Torres doubled off Gavin Hollowell for the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 13.3 points, cutting the Chicago lead to 5-3. However, Nico Hoerner's run-scoring single off Hunter Dobbins in the fifth had already proven pivotal, adding 9.2 points of win probability and extending the cushion before St. Louis could respond.
Hoerner finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus 16.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.3. Bregman followed at plus 14.0 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24, while Torres posted plus 12.3 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing side. On the mound, David Peterson led all pitchers at plus 18.7 percent WPA for Chicago, with Trent Thornton close behind at plus 17.4 percent WPA. The Cubs finished with 15 hits and committed no errors, while St. Louis also played a clean game defensively but could not generate enough offense against a deep Cubs pitching effort.