MLB Recap · July 26, 2026

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

CLE0
Final
TB1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE000000000010
TB00001000-160

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Cleveland Guardians 1-0 on July 26, 2026, at Tropicana Field, with a single run in the fifth inning proving to be all the offense either side would need. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Tampa Bay at 62% and finished at 100% as Cleveland managed just one hit across nine innings.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth when Cedric Mullins singled off Parker Messick, a play that added 6.5% to Tampa Bay's win probability and set the table for what would become the game's only run. Cleveland's best chance to respond came and went quietly, with the ninth inning proving particularly damaging to the Guardians' prospects. Steven Kwan grounded out against Bryan Baker, costing Cleveland 7.1% in win probability, and Brayan Rocchio's strikeout against Baker moments later shed another 6.8%. Junior Caminero's groundout in the bottom of the eighth added 6.9% for Tampa Bay, a swing that reflected how effectively the Rays protected their slim lead as Cleveland threatened.

On the mound, Drew Rasmussen was the evening's most impactful performer, contributing 31.8% in cumulative win probability added, with Parker Messick and Bryan Baker adding 27.6% and 15.2% respectively to close it out. Among Tampa Bay's position players, Chase DeLauter led with 6.5% WPA alongside a 0.1 RE24 mark, while Chandler Simpson contributed 5.6% WPA and a team-best 0.5 RE24. The model's lean throughout the night reflected the Rays' command of the game from first pitch to last.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalTB win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 62.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Steven Kwan Groundout
Top 9th · off Bryan Baker
-7.1%
Junior Caminero Groundout
Bot 8th · off Colin Holderman
+6.9%
Brayan Rocchio Strikeout
Top 9th · off Bryan Baker
-6.8%
Cedric Mullins Single
Bot 5th · off Parker Messick
+6.5%
David Fry Strikeout
Top 8th · off Garrett Cleavinger
-5.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Chase DeLauter+6.5%+0.1 RE24
Chandler Simpson+5.6%+0.5 RE24
Petey Halpin+1.5%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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