MLB Recap · July 26, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

LAD3
Final
NYM8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD002100000390
NYM10000340-861

The Story

The New York Mets erased a pregame underdog status to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-3 at Citi Field on July 26, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 33 percent home win probability into a wire-to-wire rout by the final out. The Dodgers showed life early, with Freddie Freeman delivering a double off Freddy Peralta in the third inning that swung win probability 10.9 percent in Los Angeles's favor, and Eliezer Alfonzo adding a double of his own in the same frame for another 6.5 percent swing. Those two runs gave the Dodgers a 2-1 edge heading into the middle innings, and a fourth-inning run pushed that lead to 3-1. But New York's bullpen and lineup combined to completely reverse the game's complexion over the sixth and seventh innings.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the sixth, when Tyrone Taylor connected on a home run off Evan Phillips that swung win probability 33.4 percent toward the Mets, the single largest play of the game. That shot erased the Dodgers' lead and fundamentally shifted control of the contest. Marcus Semien then extended the damage in the seventh, launching a home run off Will Klein that added another 13.3 percent to New York's win probability, effectively salting the game away as the Mets plated four runs in that frame. The final line told the story of two teams moving in opposite directions across nine innings, with New York outscoring Los Angeles 7-1 from the sixth inning onward.

Taylor finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 33.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.5, while Semien posted a RE24 of plus 2.7 to go alongside his 13.3 percent win probability contribution. Carson Benge contributed plus 10.9 percent WPA as well. On the mound, Cionel Pérez led New York's relievers with plus 8.6 percent WPA, followed closely by Brooks Raley at plus 8.5 percent and Emmet Sheehan at plus 6.2 percent. A costly Teoscar Hernández single in the second inning had briefly cost the Mets 8.6 percent in win probability, but the team more than recovered, finishing with the DiamondIQ model's estimate sitting at 100 percent in their favor.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalNYM win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 32.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Tyrone Taylor Home Run
Bot 6th · off Evan Phillips
+33.4%
Marcus Semien Home Run
Bot 7th · off Will Klein
+13.3%
Freddie Freeman Double
Top 3rd · off Freddy Peralta
+10.9%
Top 2nd · off Freddy Peralta
-8.6%
Eliezer Alfonzo Double
Top 3rd · off Freddy Peralta
+6.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Tyrone Taylor+33.9%+2.5 RE24
Marcus Semien+13.3%+2.7 RE24
Carson Benge+10.9%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →