Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Cleveland Guardians 3-0 at Tropicana Field on July 25, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 62% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The game was scoreless through four innings before Tampa Bay broke through in the fifth, which proved to be the decisive frame. Junior Caminero's double off Tanner Bibee carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 12.6%, and the inning continued to pile on as Jonathan Aranda followed with a single worth plus 5.6% and Yandy Díaz added a double of his own at plus 5.2%, turning a tight pitching duel into a commanding lead. Tampa Bay added another run in the sixth to set the final margin at three.

Caminero finished as the game's top offensive contributor, posting a WPA of plus 9.0% alongside a RE24 of plus 0.6, making him the clearest catalyst in Cleveland's undoing. While Tanner Bibee absorbed the damage across the Tampa Bay lineup, the Guardians did have moments that briefly slowed the Rays' momentum. Ben Williamson's groundout in the fourth represented the single biggest negative swing for Tampa Bay at minus 8.4%, and Richie Palacios hit into a double play in the second that subtracted 6.7% from the Rays' probability, suggesting Cleveland had chances to apply early pressure that never materialized into runs. Cleveland finished with five hits but was unable to convert any of them into scoring.

On the mound, Nick Martinez was the dominant force of the evening, contributing plus 22.9% WPA to lead all pitchers in the game by a wide margin. Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger provided reliable support out of the bullpen at plus 5.0% and plus 4.5% respectively, helping Tampa Bay complete the shutout without an error on either side. The Rays' pitching staff collectively held Cleveland to nothing across nine innings, a result that reflected the model's pre-game lean toward Tampa Bay and then some.